Thursday, September 24, 2009

Investment value chain by looking downstream

In the last post, I had mentioned about the importance of cash flows. One shouldnt however follow it blindly as I was almost about to sell BEML stock based on
negative operating cash flow of Rs 411 crores(Rs 4.11 Billion). However it was the inventory which increased from Rs 2 Bn to nearly Rs 6.9 Bn. With an inventory turnover ratio slightly greater than one. The gearing has also increased due to increase in working capital and other capex.

Looking at the downstream value chain becomes important as one analyzes as to where are BEML's products being used: for building roads and metro coaches primarily. The Medium term drivers are following:
1. The National highway development plan is going to receive a boost, however I saw mostly kobelco earth moving equipment in Hyderabad while travelling to the airport. So is this a valid correlation cov xy/ sigma x. sigma y
2. Metro is going to come up in Bangalore, DMRC is in for a massive expansion, so rolling stocks requirement is going to increase. That could be a reason for the significant increase in inventory other than a desire to build up inventory when the raw materials are in a negative cycle

In terms of long term drivers:
- Public transport could receive a boost with increasing urbanization and spending power in developing countries while the lobbying power of automakers decreases witht the Detroit bankruptcies.
- Mechanization in building roads is going to increase in India.
- Real estate prices in Bangalore are going to increase and BEML's real estate assets are significantly undervalued.
To end the post let me be a bit humorous, history does repeat itself like I read in russian science fiction in a story where a physicist is about to cross an unmanned railway crossing. BEML price has yo-yoed between 500 and 1700 in the past, so buying opportunities might be there sub Rs 750. Credit Suisse has a target of nearly Rs 1200.

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